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Sports: There are just 8 countries with a legit shot to win the World Cup

Only eight countries have at least a 5% chance to win the most celebrated sporting event in the World, and only three have better than an 8...

Neymar

Only eight countries have at least a 5% chance to win the most celebrated sporting event in the World, and only three have better than an 8% shot.

  • Brazil is once again the pre-tournament favorite to win the World Cup.
  • Only eight countries have at least a 5% chance to win the most celebrated sporting event in the World, and only three have better than an 8% shot.


Brazil is once again the pre-tournament favorite to win the World Cup, but the gap between them and the field is not as wide as it was in 2014.

Brazil has a 19% chance to win the World Cup in Russia, according to Nate Silver's model at FiveThirtyEight. They gave Brazil a 36% chance to be champions on their home turf in the last World Cup.

In all, there are eight countries with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Cup.

Here are the chances of winning the World Cup on the eve of the tournament:

  • Brazil, 19%
  • Spain, 17%
  • Germany, 13%
  • France, 8%
  • England, 7%
  • Belgium, 7%
  • Argentina, 7%
  • Portugal, 6%

No other country has more than a 3% chance of winning the tournament and 14 of the 32 teams have less than a 1% chance of winning. The 24 countries not listed above have a combined shot of 16%. Host country Russia is listed at 1%.

More World Cup 2018 coverage:

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